Modelling Scenarios
Modelling Scenarios

Modelling scenarios using both empirical and numerical methods are central to providing information about the characteristics of events that endanger or impact human settlements and livelihood.

Through scenario modelling, our goal is to understand and quantify the intensity and magnitude of the most plausible disaster events.

We use scenarios to produce hazard and risk maps, perform detailed risk analyses, and design mitigation and prevention measures. ScenariosĀ are calculated using both empirical and numerical methods.


Oblique view of the village Abe Barek located in Afghanistan which was hit by a landslide in 2014. The landslide destroyed over 80 buildings and caused over 300 fatalities which still remains unconfirmed. Detailed analysis of satellite images acquired prior to the event and satellite radar interferometry from preceding years, showed that the landslide was active prior to failure in 2014.


Runout simulation of the failure event which occurred in 2014 using the model RAMMS. The map indicates the extend and flow height of the landslide runout with largest deposition depths on the valley floor. The landslide deposits dammed the river valley and created a lake.


Runout simulation of a conservative, future landslide event using the model RAMMS. The map indicates the extend and flow height of the landslide runout. Although the scenario is more restricted in its extent as the 2014 event, a considerable area within the vicinity of Ab Barek has an elevated hazard potential.




Risk zonation map for a future landslide hazard scenario. The zonation map shows a change in the risk potential for buildings, between the 2014 and a future landslide event. Our analysis (based on satellite DInSAR, imagery, and DEM analysis) indicates that a potential landslide mass is currently evolving, supporting a potential future landslide scenario.